Category Archives: Premium

Commentary on yesterday’s Employment Report at Value Plays , as indicators are positive . Long-Term Sector Charts and cheap money at Bespoke. Mining share are beat up enough for yeild’s to be meaningful . Value Investing Flavors at Aleph…

Silver Wheaton Shares Could Face Distress was published. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Unveils Aggressive Monetary Policy and precious metals continued to fall. The Bollinger Bands are foreshadowing a big stock market move says Andrew Thrasher…

With gold ( Peter Brandt ) and materials ( Chess ) in deep trouble, the time to look around has arrived. Stock market leadership has narrowed marketly. I have long considered the consumer dividend plays richly priced. Europe is a mess and…

The precious metal complex is either broken or looking to begin a historic move. I don’t know which, but we’ll find out soon enough. The charts are interesting and biased at Gold Scents . David Stockman’s piece garnered a lot of attention…

Okay, a few things for this morning: A Little Perspective at Market Anthropology . Even cash is now at risk say long time super bear Albert Edwards . If Corporate Profitability ( Economists View ) is mean reverting, then a right shoulder…

More evidence the economic recovery is real by Tim Duy . Temp Staffing and Employment and Housing at Value Plays . Tax receipts are strong ( Dr. Ed ). The $85 billion a month in printing looks to continue indefinitely at Marketwatch . S&P…

ISA has been noting the real possibility the U.S. economy might see an increase to a still modest growth rate. Perhaps low consumer confidence is a good thing for the stock market ( Ryan Detrick ), by no means do the economy and stock…

Economy Shows Surprising Bounce: “Early-Year Progress Faces Headwinds, Though, as Washington Drama Still Spooks Many Businesses” Google the title at the WSJ . The case for optimism by Scott Grannis . “That figure was up from the low…

Seems most of the peak oil crowd is unable to recognize how the energy landscape has changed ; they still say the world will be short of energy and hydrocarbons soon. The cornucopian’s forget the planet is finite. Meanwhile, world oil…

Futures are higher because European policy makers agreed to steal 20% of Cyprus bank deposits above $100k Euro’s, staving off bank collapses. Global Investment Commentary from The Short Side Of Long . An in-depth look into 2013 by the…

It’s Do or Die time for Gold . For the last month we have chronicled the potential gold bottom. Either gold breaks and we calmly walk away, or we are still in the toehold of a historic rally. Regardless, speculators with starter a position…

In The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 . ExxonMobil says to think efficency. Canadian oil production is robust and at all-time highs. Financial Post 2 Trends Making Investors Money in the Canadian Energy Patch by the promotional Keith…

Why China is Tunneling a Mind-Boggling 800 Miles in 2 Years by Frank Holmes . Signs of Global Healing by Humble Student . Is the Economy Stronger Than We Think? by Bonddad . “Residential investment and housing starts are usually the best…

Mr. Market seem to take the Cyprus event in stride in impressive fashion. “During each of the first two quantitative easing phases carried out by the Fed, commodities appreciated by over 25%. However, following the announcement of QE3 in…

Will the Cyprus surprise be akin the Bear Stearns collapse five years ago? Good morning. All markets are down this morning except natural gas and gold. The natty price functions in it’s own insulated world apart from the madness of risk on…

Charlie Munger on the Psychology of Human Misjudgement in a Harvard Speech . I recommend printing it. What makes a great investment according to Bill Ackman . 12 Market Wisdoms From Gerald Loeb at Street Talk . Trade Like A Pawn Shop by…

A characteristically brilliant Kyle Bass at Chicago Booth . After sneaking higher in recent weeks, yesterday Natural gas shot up on the inventory report. Has the worm finally turned? Is the lower rig count going to appear in production?…

The amazing shift in US fuel consumption trajectory since 2004 is a function of the oil price and has effected both supply and demand: Fuel economy is large piece of the story ( Wards Auto ) A whole lotta information in the Energy Outlook…

Loews: Unabashed Conglomerate written by me . Markets Reseach: Metals and Mining at BMO . About 259 pages worth covering a variety of sub-sectors. Jeremy Grantham with some unique and interesting ideas on Charlie Rose .

Rex Tillerson in a thoughtful interview on Charlie Rose . BP’s Bob Dudley Shares His Energy Thoughts at EFS . Chevron estimates US has recoverable oil and gas equivalent to 35 years of Saudi production at EIN News . Demand Declines but…

Value Investor Insight The Dow Hits a Record High With Household Income at a Decade Low at The Atlantic . S&P 500 Revenues at Dr. Ed . Why Are Most People Terrible Investors? ( Phil Pearlman ). “It’s supposed to be hard.” ( Ziad Masri )…

US was world’s largest petroleum producer in November, surpassing Saudi Arabia for first time in ten years by Mark Perry . The measuring stick is the misleading liquids , yet the occurrence is impressive nonetheless. Interesting fact: U.S…

This morning’s Wall Street Journal headline on the sequester included this quote: “If they could get this fixed, the economy is poised to take off,” Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Brian Moynihan said in an interview. I believe this…

Rational Temperance by Bill Gross . More evidence that housing has bottomed by Scott Grannis . New Home Inventory Continues to Fall at Value Plays . Tidbits on the industrialization of China by Frank Holmes . Ken Heebner Bets 21% of His…

Hyperinflations, Hysteria, and False Memories by James Montier with a different view. The goldbugs are always bullish, so Time to Buy Precious Metals Now at Daily Gold . Big Investors Differ on Gold’s Prospects ( WSJ ). But the charts are…

The rally remains on hold and with the Euro having cracked the correction will need some time to play out. Higher morning futures followed by vicious afternoon sell-offs have been a hallmark of corrections in this cyclical bull. Be careful…

Take some chips off the table said Humble Student of the Markets . A bit on Keynesian-ism by Scott Minerd . Meanwhile in the real world, US facing a housing shortage? Sober Look Income investing: The New MLP Landscape: “For years, master…

Hugh Hendry on Crises, China and Capital : “One of the world’s most likeable/hateable hedge fund managers talks about investing.” Plan B Economics Grantham take a while to get going in this interview at BBC . More on the bearish divergence…

Finally, after leadership narrowed, the long awaited market sell-off may have begun. A combination of sequestration and lack of Fed’s easy money commitment ( Economist’s View ) look to receive the blame. Smells like a fund blowing up in…

Scrambling for Returns at Mauldin Economics . Buffett’s Heinz deal at Aleph . Foreclosure discounts no longer as steep ( Housing Wire ). “With pent up demand diminishing after 2013 however, housing price appreciation should revert back to…

Lamphier: Direct threat to Canadian economy posed by U.S. shale oil production at the Edmonton Journal . The Bakken profiled at National Geographic . Chevron: The World’s Biggest Gusher at Forbes . Oil Services And Equipment ETFs Pump Out…

Markets are closed today for President’s Day. The activity this week will be interesting following Friday’s flat stock market and commodity-lower divergence. “…accumulate income-generating assets whose income by itself may generate enough…

The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville by Warren Buffett . That’s it this weekend. I’m busy taking 25 girls to the biggest division III women’s basketball game of the year. But be sure to enjoy Buffett’s essay.

Third Point Q4 2012 investment letter . China Eclipses U.S. as Biggest Trading Nation at Bloomberg . 13 Charts That Are Crucial To Understanding China And The Emerging Markets at Business Insider . Goldman Sachs braces for bond market blow…

More on secular bear markets at Ritholtz . “Bridgewater, the world’s biggest hedge fund, is bullish on stocks, oil, commodities and some currencies as it expects cash to shift to riskier assets…”You want to be borrowing cash and hold…

Thirty one minutes of Rick Rule , from the 12-43 minute marks on Stansberry Radio . Speaking at the World Outlook Financial Conference was Frank Guistra . Loews (L) reported results yesterday, as did subsidiaries CNA Financial (CNA) and…

The Rise and Eventual Fall of the U. S. Bond Market by Ambassador Capital . Growth in a Low Growth World and asset allocation at Grantham’s GMO . I suggest printing it to read it. Correction? Watch the Cyclicals! say Mr. Hui . Market…

Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013 by Credit Suisse . Why is US Oil Consumption Lower? Better Gasoline Mileage? at TOD . The unsaid answer in the excellent piece is price. Meanwhile, Chinese oil imports are going the opposite…

In the short term, The Price Action is Warning Us ( All-Star Charts ). Jeff Saut: “ The call for this week : Today is session 23 (26 Thursday) in the typical 17- to 25-session duration of a “buying stampede.” Such skeins only have one- to…

Riding the Waves of Economic Cycles by Lance Roberts was written three years ago. The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away by Lance Roberts . Is this a good time to buy stocks? at Econobrowser . S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Update…

Gold Miners Are Just Doing What Miners Do by Toby Connor . ISA typically avoids the promotional, but the essay makes a super bullish case. Note the precious metal complex was higher in Monday’s down stock market… A look at our place in the…

Two top picks: Safety, of course, is the primary concern. An equity investment would need the strongest of balance sheets. Just as important is management’s attitude toward risk. Having prodigious free cash flow is vital. Being able to…

Wednesday’s GDP report was described at the most positive negative number ever seen. We already knew Q4 and Q1 were going to be light, perhaps followed by acceleration later in the year. Comments on Q4 GDP and Investment at Calculated Risk…

The Petroleum Economist is a 1295 Euro a year product. Math whizzes might note that to be about $1700 U.S. dollars. A free trial is available through January 31. It’s not for everyone, but some ISA members would enjoy a day to poke around…

Conference Presentation: What is Driving Today’s Investors? by Barry Ritholtz . Commodities Prices are Falling. Really. Barron’s (Google the title, the piece has interesting charts). The 15 year CRB and 20 year CRB . “…by 2030, at which…

The DJIA is 1.9% below its all-time closing high ( Bespoke ). Weekend Thinking Out Loud by J.C. Parets . Upside Risks by Josh Brown . No doubt currency wars and printing are a driver ( Bloomberg ). “The second installment of the 2012…

Traders, Who are You ? Kirk Report The bond kings head to the stock market. Reuters The amazing yield conundrum at Scott Grannis . Household debt service payments as a percent of disposable personal income is falling markedly. St. Louis…

Pop quiz: What world economic growth rate is expected for 2013? The answer is at the bottom of the post. NRP is diversifying into soda ash operations. The insider financing doesn’t thrill me but otherwise I like the business and units…

The stock market’s secular and cyclical position discussed in Barron’s and by Josh Brown . S&P 500 Fair Value Update at Value Plays (Has the shift in income to capital from labor permanent? Or is it a function of the credit bubble?). 2008…

Stocks vs REITs: Advisor Perspective . All-Time Highs by Ryan Puplava . Charting China’s Economy: The Fourth Quarter at WSJ China . More on the step-down in China’s growth: WSJ . China’s Coal Price Influence Could Fall at Coal Investing…

According to Macquarie Private Wealth The resource boom ended in 2011 already . The cliff notes are at Mining and the whole piece is at MPW. Think China… End of An Era: 30 Years of Double-Digit Chinese Growth at Saturna Capital . Yes, the…

Investors are what they read ( AR ). Thus you subscribe to Independent Stock Analysis . Unfortunately, I haven’t found a whole lot for today. But I’m committed to posting only worthwhile stuff. “…suggests a definitive positive turning…

The debt ceiling, sequester and continuing resolution for those interested at Calculated Risk . Commodity Run Coming? Jason Kim Uranium information is hard to find. Here is a Bill Powers interview which will cost $0.99 to listen, and I do…

In a world of fiat money, perhaps everything is a speculation. NY Times Interest rate risk is real ( Fortune ). The High Yield Market is “Completely Out of Control” at DDI . REITs: A word of caution ( Vanguard Blog ). US 10-Year Yield…

WTI Oil Trades Near Four-Month High on Seaway Pipeline Expansion at Bloomberg . Oil Takes Out Key Resistance at Bespoke . Historical oil prices: EIA . Well, yes: “Despite record-high oil sector investments, Norway’s crude oil output fell…

October US natural gas production was an all-time high: EIA . Exporting the American Renaissance: Global Impacts of LNG Exports from the United States by Deloitte . “Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, reduced its crude…

Futures are higher as China Exports Accelerate With Credit in Recovery Boost: Economy ( Bloomberg ). A re-acceleration of Chinese growth is what everyone has been waiting for… Investment risks and cycles by Howard Marks . We remain…

Understanding the Oil Cycle at Investing Daily . “RBC Capital Markets’ commodities expert, George Gero, sees WTI trading in a $20-band around the mid-$80s in 2013…” Saudi Gazette “U.S. daily oil production, which averaged 6.4 million…

Coal Stocks Grinding Higher at Next Big Trade . KOL, however, represents international coal and is a function of China. China’s Economy: The Coming Year at WSJ . Iron ore continues to shine at Mining . Coal’s share of global energy mix to…

Welcome to the first full week of stock trading since mid-December. And the S&P 500 stands at a 5 year high. After a poor 2012, “Master Limited Partnerships came roaring back with 7% gains in the first week of the new year, leaving a…

Employment Report Comments and more Graphs by Bill McBride . See his Employment Graphs . I’m sure yesterday the talking heads and media took the day off from the fiscal cliff and debt ceiling to pontificate over the employment report. NFP…

Don Coxe’s final Basic Points . Everyone should read this; I recommend printing it… With usual wit, Jim Grant survey’s the monetary environment and takes a good look at Google and General Motors too. Grant’s Pub For the more serious…

What looks good for 2013? Rick Rule’s macro commentary and constructive commodity outlook: Sprott . In spite of the Western world debt mess, ISA has been noting a relatively strong U.S. outlook. The debt ends in pain, though perhaps not…

ISA operates under the theory the stock market continues in a secular bear market which began in 2000. Strangely, the Dow has only had one negative year (’08 down 35%) the past 10 years. The Dow was down a rare three years in a row from…

Unless a speculator is into checking Congressional members’ Facebook updates for trading purposes, there is not a whole lot happening. “It is very rare that any top-performing sector in a given year can repeat that market-leading…

Expect little in the markets to be of interest thru New Year’s Day. An important economic statistic: Household Formation at The Atlantic . US Birth Rate Hits New Low – A Nation of Singles by John Mauldin . Charts on everything: Stock…

China’s renewed momentum to drive commodities at Financial Express . Why India Will Displace China as Global Growth Engine by Gary Shilling . I’m not so sure. Iron ore surge continues – now up 51% from September lows at Mining . CIBC’s…

The energy piece of the economic puzzle has morphed over the last several years. From a macro economic perspective, energy does not appear to be a headwind. Energy is providing a sustainable economic competitive advantage in the U.S…

Yesterday the PM complex was whacked on a White House rejection of a Boehner offer. Blah blah, whatever. I didn’t look, but I’m sure the conspiratorial goldbugs were screaming manipulation. But is a “High volume flushout with positive…

Shell’s 5% Dividend Yield (Part 3): Total Return Story is Compelling at Ycharts . J&J’s Dividend, Yielding 3.5%: What You Need to Know About Cash and Growth at Ycharts . A Lump of Coal for Christmas May Not Be So Bad by J.C. Parets…

A subscriber asked about TCK. In short, TCK is my favorite vehicle for Western investors and speculators to play the industrialization of the China and emerging markets. Rather than compete against them, sell ’em what they need! Yet ISA…

Oil Market Going Through ‘Violent’ Structural Change: IEA at CNBC : “…the shift of oil demand from the West to the East is now rapidly accelerating” and “refining margins have become more volatile.” Iraq, Saudi on OPEC collision course…

In honor of the Fed’s last meeting of it’s 99th year: The Lender of Last Resort: Lessons from the Fed’s First 100 Years at Ritholtz . I’m sure 2013 will see many a goldbug story detailing the century of currency destruction. A rippin’ gold…

S&P 500 Energy & Materials relative to each other by Ed Yardeni . The Significant Impact of U.S. Oil Production by Frank Holmes . Three charts of America’s bright energy future by Mark Perry . The Insourcing Boom ( The Atlantic ) helps…

Gifts for the Financially Inclined (I received the Zimbabwe bills two years ago.) Perhaps an Independent Stock Analysis membership would be a good self-gift. The Science Behind Gifting ( WSJ ). Lunch with Warren Buffet at the New Yorker…

Top Ten Market Themes for 2013 : Goldman “…stocks don’t always provide the inflation protection investors seek, especially over time periods relevant to most of us; i.e. less than 20 years. When valuations are high and/or falling, and…

Uranium is a difficult place to invest. I have precious little insight But here goes: Following the end of the cold war, uranium was in massive oversupply. The long Russian de-stocking program is set to end next year. Combined with growth…

Q4 GDP is Tracking Very Weak…. ( Pragmatic Capitalism ). Yet last week U.S. third quarter GDP growth was revised up to 2.7% growth ( Marketwatch ). Now, manufacturing is struggling to gain traction ( economists view ). And I spent the…

Oil as an Exhaustible Resource by James Hamilton , which dovetails with the ISA idea worldwide oil production is on an undulating plateau, the shape of which will be determined by price. 9 Charts That Show Why People Have Begun To Whisper…

A valued Independent Stock Analysis member inquired about the mineral fertilizer group, including Potash (POT) and Mosiac (MOS), as well as the uranium industry and Cameco (CCJ). I do not have significant and unique insights into these…

In NG Calls a reader asked some good questions. My cleaned up response: So you think that natural gas plants will continue to replace old outmoded coal plants? Yes, the coming wave of stateside coal plant retirements is well documented…

Conspiratorial precious metal bloggers were taken on by Kid Dynamite. Meanwhile, while those guys argue how many angels can dance on the head of a pin, Fed’s Evans Urges Near-Zero Rates Until 6.5% Jobless as “Evans’ shift today underscores…

I trust members used the weekend to get caught up on the heavy reading presented at Independent Stock Analysis . In honor of cyber Monday, consider subscribing for $100 a year. Now we’re back at it as we continue to examine our thesis…

Today the investor can waste time watching ‘business news’ being reported from the mall, or you can spend 15 minutes with Independent Stock Analysis: NatGas Inventories Begin Falling Fast, Cold Snap May Send Prices Surging Above $4 Fast at…

Intellectual honesty is paramount in investing. “In the fall of 1621, 90 Wampanoag Indians and 52 English colonists gathered for a three-day harvest feast.” The First Thanksgiving by Elizabeth Armstrong . In a less romantic version, the…

The best stuff you’ll see all weekend: The History of Gold Charts : Peter Brandt . An in-depth big picture look by Grant Williams .. Re-post: Print and read sixty two page of goodness from Peter Degraaf . This will not print without a…

Thirty four shale gas reports: No Hot Air . ISA believes the promise of Iraqi oil will always remain an empty ( Business Insider ). And as for California shale oil, well, good luck trying to drill 10’s of thousands of wells on on 10 acre…

Citigroup- Commodities Super-Cycle is Now Over at Trading Journal of an Investment Junkie . ISA is selective in its favorite commodities while expecting emerging markets to continue their advance. I hope to run across the full 120 page…

The possibility of a Santa Claus rally: Cam Hui . “There are a number of possible Utica deals on the horizon, with some values potentially rivaling the approximate $15,000 per acre that Chesapeake previously announced.” Wow! UG Center…

The S&P 500 and all ten sectors are now more than two standard deviations below their 50-day moving averages: Bespoke . Two weeks ago Basic Points: Twentieth Anniversary Issue by Don Coxe was posted. Did you print and read it? You should…

After a week of “Shale Boom Puts America on Track to Surpass Saudi Arabia in Production by 2020” ( WSJ ), consider a more sober but realistic look at the world oil market standing: Tadeusz Patzek . Six dense pages: “WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK…

Being bearish is easy. The massive imbalances are well known and will end in tears. But reading Zerohedge everyday is hazardous to your wealth. First, An Old Friend: The Stock Market’s Shiller P/E is a must read for stock investors and…

This weekend the IEA released its World Energy Outlook 2012 , spawning a flurry of news articles. ISA is a shale believer, but much of the mainstream media know not what they speak: Maybe in a robust price environment : “The United States…

Friday afternoon’s post took a great deal of time, so I skipped the Saturday post. Now this morning’s post is ginormous! As a leading indicator, Gold (priced in Swiss Francs) has begun the next leg of its bull trend by Peter Brandt . The…

Independent Stock Analysis covers an awful lot of ground and two months have passed since we overviewed the landscape. Perhaps an updated survey would be helpful. In addition to specific stock opportunities, let’s consider natural gas…

A constructive look at the election and recovery: Todd Sullivan . Alternatively, the case to get more defensive: Josh Brown . ISA typically has no opinion on recession or market direction. Yet ISA notes because the macro environment…

EOG Resources reported stellar oil production results and growth again in the third quarter. EOG is an outstanding company; unfortunately shares are priced richly. Chief Mark Papa always provides clear macro commentary and was the first to…

Crude Futures Drop on Greek Austerity Vote, Rising U.S. Supply at Bloomberg . Energy chart of the day: US oil output during last week of October was highest weekly production since January 1995 from Mark Perry . U.S. net petroleum imports…

The Gold to Crude Oil Ratio is Getting Jiggy and looks to head much higher: Greg Harmon . “Gold is likely to move sharply upwards should Barack Obama be given a second term in office, analysts say…a Romney win would result in a knee-jerk…

Oil Trades Near Four-Month Low on Greece Concern, U.S. Elections at Bloomberg . Surging Oil Production In US And Iraq Weigh On Long-Term Oil Prices, Demand Is Key In Near Term at HAI . Last decade a leg of the fundamental negative outlook…

Thursday magnified the importance of stock selection in the E&P sector. SM rose 11% and BRY fell 12% on results. Execution is the prime reason PXP is able to make its huge foray into the Gulf of Mexico while FST attempt to turn around and…

Basic Points: Twentieth Anniversary Issue by Don Coxe . This Basic Points will keep investors busy for a while. Coxe reads best after he’s been off your radar for a while. Don Coxe – A Gold Bull, Bond Bear, & Commodity Supercyle at KWN…

Oil Trades Near 3-Day High as Refineries Resume at Bloomberg . Sandy likely will lead to lower gasoline prices at Fuel Fix . Analysis: Does U.S. shale mean cheap global oil by 2020? at Reuters . ISA continues to think remarkably steady oil…

The precious metals complex is outperforming today and may be set to rally. Is Santa Coming Early for Gold & Gold Mining Stocks? Chris Vermeulen “Continuing problems in the U.S. economy suggest that the Federal Reserve may not be providing…

Oil Trims Biggest Monthly Decline Since May After Storm at Bloomberg . Will The Crude Production Boom Keep Running? RBN Energy Regarding Sandy, “Bakken fell $6.50 to a $10-a-barrel-discount against WTI at 3:12 p.m. New York time, its…

Last Wednesday Teck Resources (TCK) released third quarter results and had its quarterly conference call. The results, webcast and presentation slides are all available here (scroll down a bit). TCK remains ISA’s favorite investment to…

Pop quiz: When does $3.47 minus 3 cents equal $3.77? Answer: When futures contracts rolls over. The November NG contract expired and December is now the front month. Most E&P’s have very modest hedges in place through 2012 while being…

Amongst the East Coast hysteria, the NYSE and NASDAQ closed for today and almost certainly will again on Tuesday. My experience suggests speculators will become irritable (no action!) while investors get some work and analysis done without…

Oil Slides, Gasoline Gains as Hurricane Sandy Nears U.S. at Bloomberg . Energy chart of the day: Shale oil production in North Dakota and Texas has boosted US oil production to a 17-year high by Mark Perry . Off topic: North Dakota’s oil…

At lunch this week a friend asked “What’s your best idea?” Well, this is not necessarily a direction I want Independent Stock Analysis to travel. But the question was being asked, again. I’m here to help understand our investment world…

Is Coal Ready for Comeback? Coal Investing “…a super-bullish take on the state of coal markets, noting it should pass crude oil as the world’s largest energy source next year as everyone from the U.S. and China to Europe, Japan, and India…

Obtaining meaningful income from investment capital is challenging. First, operational risk is large in equity investments ( Ycharts ). Secondly, interest rate risk is huge ( Peter Brandt ). Over extended periods of time, yield on cost is…

Will the market weakness remain contained or is it the start of something deeper? Chess One wildly bullish cycles commentator is calling for a bottom: Toby Connor . Meanwhile, futures are strong this morning as Oil Rebounds After Five-Day…

Independent Stock Analysis has long suggested world oil production oil appears to be on an undulating plateau , the shape of which will be determined by price. And the oil price may be remarkably steady for the years ahead. OPEC and the…

Fed considers upping QE3 size and language at Marketwatch . Sounds like when operation sterilized twist expires at the end this year it will be replaced with an unsterilized increase in QE3 to infinity. ISA suggests the precious metal…

Oil Falls for Fourth Day in New York; Brent Fluctuates at Bloomberg . Yesterday was Natural Gas’ Biggest Single-Day Slump Since August at Barron’s . Dennis Gartman Makes the Bear Case for Crude on CNBC . “U.S. fossil fuel production will…

I was away from the computer screen during the Friday market drubbing, but you can be sure I noted the gold stocks (and UPL) were flat on the day. Perhaps the title of this worthwhile essay should have been “ Buy Gold “: Will central banks…

Oil Advances; Keystone Pipeline Set to Start at Bloomberg . Goldman sounds like the ISA ‘stable undulating plateau oil price regime’ ( Reuters ): “Over the past three years long-dated Brent crude oil prices have shown signs of stabilizing…

Things I Don’t Understand by Grant Williams . Fantastic big picture investing looks: Part I and Part II . As a stock junkie with a penchant for market history, I always enjoy stories like The Copper King’s Precipitous Fall ( Smithsonian )…

Kurt Cobb has a decent series on world oil supply: Why the oil industry doesn’t want you to remember the last 14 years Has OPEC misled us about the size of its oil reserves? Does it matter? Tar sands, oil shale, and heavy oil: Why the…

Yesterday, Gas Slides on Forecasts for Above-Normal Temperatures at Bloomberg . Perhaps a slow start to winter provides an entry point for the gassers… The service company’s loss is the E&P’s gain: “Pricing for shale work is expected to…

What to make of the latest round of Chinese data at FT Alphaville . “ September Chinese exports came in +9.9% Y/Y, while imports were +2.4% higher. However, the larger than expected increase in exports was due to shipments being made ahead…

Morgan Stanley’s bullish natural gas note last week may well be significantly understated with the assumptions used in my opinion. The full report: Morgan Stanley . Natural gas and coal: Energy Energized by Ryan Puplava . Economists are a…

Jeff Saut gave a great interview: King World News . A Letter To A Friend at Short Side of Long . The U.S. Federal government budget deficit problem clearly explained on YouTube . If only the author took the analysis one step further to…

Walden Pond: “Do not hire a man who does your work for money, but him who does it for love of it.” Consider your Independent Stock Analysis membership today! Meanwhile, coal bulls and bears alike are a cocky bunch: Coal Today VS. Two Weeks…

The coal stocks ripped higher yesterday. Perhaps speculators were betting a Vice-President candidate was going to announce “I love coal”, as did a candidate at the top of a ticket. Natural gas was very strong on an inventory number…

Independent Stock Analysis readers know JJ Butler was promoted from piker in the rebound from the telecom bust in 2003. Teck Resources (TCK) was an even better score as a high quality company pigeon holed with outstanding long term assets…

Tomorrow afternoon ISA will take an extensive look at the coal and natural gas thesis, including a favorite investment possibility. As the the precious metals complex works off an overbought condition with time, here is a deep look: GOLD –…

Oil Declines From High as Crude Stocks Seen Rising at Bloomberg . Continental’s five year plan announced yesterday was in conjunction with the company’s Investor Day . A summery at Million Dollar Way . Report: Shale gas boom could echo…

Be sure to watch the dollar ( Kimble chart ) for the price direction in risk assets. The Industrial Conclusion? Chess The Brics have taken an unhappy turn at FT Times (free registration required). IMF Sees ‘Alarmingly High’ Risk of Deeper…

After the poor overnight economic data, markets are quite tame as Canadians enjoy their Thanksgiving Day. The big news of the slow day: “The World Bank cut its economic growth forecasts for the East Asia and Pacific region on Monday and…

Oil Declines a Second Day as Europe Ministers Meet Amid Slowdown at Bloomberg . Short of gasoline, California moves to winter blend several weeks early. Bloomberg U.S. shale oil plays are booming to the point of still being underestimated…

Oil Heads for Third Weekly Drop Before U.S. Jobs Data at Bloomberg . U.S. crude oil output reaches a 15-year high in September; Dept. of Energy predicts significant increases to continue ( Mark Perry ). “The rapidly growing crude-oil flow…

For months ISA has noted sanctions curtailing Iranian oil exports. Fear mongers hypothesize Iranian unrest ( Sprach ) will lead to a spike in oil pricing. Wrong. Regime change in Iran could mean built up inventory and shut in production…

What the Fed’s Historic Bet Means for You by Mohamed A. El-Erian . Kass: Still Short Bonds at The Street . Bill Gross monthly Investment Outlook. No wonder “…strategists have never been that bearish according to Bank of America Merrill…

Oil Trades Near One-Week High as U.S. Manufacturing Expands at Bloomberg . America’s booming energy industry has emerged as the no. 1 job-creating sector of the U.S. economy by Mark Perry . The horizontal drilling boom being bullish for…

On the one hand, the research clearly states indexing is so hard to beat ( fool ). Yet small caps are looking bullish in Russell 2000 Is Testing Major Resistance at All Star Charts . Further, Investment grade corporate bonds are priced to…

Durable goods orders have slowed and second quarter GDP was revised to a pathetic 1.3% growth rate. Yet Two Reasons to expect Economic Growth to Increase ( Calculated Risk ) includes housing . “All the while, the market continues to grind…

Don’t look now, but near front month (November) natural gas is trading at $3.29, while December contracts are at $3.58. Coal became depressed on the back of the shale gas boom: Haynesville Play . Coal vs. natural gas: It’s complicated at…

ISA has always been negative the European economy. Our bearish emerging market posture is more recent, yet when China becomes serious about fiscal stimulus will we look to be heavily involved in the materials stocks. Until then, we’ll…

Following two days of trading lower, the precious metals complex opened sharply down today before rebounding to this point. Chess’s take this morning. “Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans on Tuesday reiterated his support…

High storage masking ‘fundamentally balanced’ US natural gas market: FBR at Platts : “ The record amount of US natural gas in storage is masking a “fundamentally balanced” gas market this year and one that will be under-supplied in 2013…

Oil Rises in New York on Speculation Last Week’s Drop Overdone at Bloomberg . Oil spare productive capacity trumps: “…analysts are increasingly skeptical about whether these countries have the capacity to shield Western consumers against a…

Commodities Unbound! at WSJ . Commodity markets look for hero in China at Marketwatch . If Chinese GDP growth declines to 6.5%, then industrial commodities are to be avoided. Ritholtz As for precious metals, CPI inflation is not important…

Futures are down this morning: Bloomberg . “The world faces “major questions” over adequacy of oil supplies…North Sea Brent crude production has halved over the past decade…on track to drop to half of that level by 2020″ at CME Group . A…

The Economy Is Slowing?? Railroads Apparently Did not Get The Memo at Value Plays . I get it, the U.S. economy is moving along at an okay pace. Regarding the current stimulus, Fed head Lockhart said “If we do not see improvement, more…

Oil Trims Biggest Drop Since June as Losses Considered Excessive at Bloomberg . Simmons & Co.: Significant Oil Output Surge Is Sustainable at UG Center . Oh how the world changes. Six years ago Matt Simmons was warning of the impending…

How much is $40 billion a month? Try $128.20 per US citizen. With my family of three, perhaps the Fed could have the Treasury send a $385.12 check every month instead. Remember the extension of operation twist ? (How can one not giggle?)…

Oil Falls to Six-Week Low on China Slowdown, Supply Surge at Bloomberg . Oil Looks Ready To Collapse on the chart by Armo Trader . Oil Looks Ready to Part Ways With Stock Market at WSJ . Iran’s oil minister says crude exports rebounding at…

Silver is both an industrial and monetary metal. Silver spends life as a stepchild, both in mining production and commercial use. Of all silver mined, 73% is as a byproduct of other metals. (Thus Silver Wheaton was born!) On the demand…

Question: What is more bullish than continuous money printing? Answer: An ever increasing rate of money printing! Here the history of bringing NGDP to the mainstream blogosphere: Economist . NGDP will be the next step. What is NGDP? WSJ…

Investors seem to be obsessing over yesterday’s large sudden fall in oil prices. Perhaps the event was random; perhaps the event means SPR oil is coming to market. More important is the rebalancing of global oil flows. Oil Extends Decline…

On one hand the continuous printing is exceedingly bullish, and at the same time the world’s largest market may have permanently topped. Jeff Saut: “…when the stock market generates an overbought condition of this magnitude it suggests…

Would you kiss a raging bull on the lips? I was considering being active with my trading position in precious metals when some certain price targets were met ( Daily Gold ), which fits well with gold forming a cup ( Jesse ) and possible…

Today ISA looks extensively at potential timing in the materials space. Material stocks have been some of the biggest movers since China announced minor additional infrastructure investment last week Friday. In fact, the only stocks to…

The money quote from the Fed : “purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month… If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of…

Oil Trades Near Three-Week High on Mideast Protests, Fed Meeting at Bloomberg . North Dakata Bakken boom continues: Mark Perry . Pad drilling and rig mobility lead to more efficient drilling at the EIA . EOG Says U.S. Fracking Rule to Cost…

Perhaps this title does not mean much to you: George Soros endorses 5% NGDP target ( Money Illusion ). Next consider negative real interest rates as a a sign of the times ( Iacono Research ). NGDP stands for nominal gross domestic product…

Oil Gains After German Court Allows For ESM Ratification at Bloomberg . Brent-WTI Oil Gap Sliding as North Sea Output Rebounds at Bloomberg . Shale oil can’t stop crude topping $150 by 2020-Bernstein at Reuters . “…while U.S. shale oil and…

Oil Trades Near Three-Week High on Outlook for Economic Stimulus at Bloomberg . Iran says oil prices are too low at Oil Voice . Naimi Says Supply and Demand Don’t Justify Rising Oil Prices at Business Week . Still Beared Up on the Oil…

Oil Trades Near One-Week High on Outlook for Economic Stimulus at Bloomberg . Oil Supplies Appear Tighter in Crisis Mirror at WSJ . The Repricing of Oil by Gregor . My view of some nuances differ, yet he’s as good an oil analyst as any…

China’s targeted infrastructure investment announcement in itself is underwhelming. Building 1254 miles of roads is not going to turn around the base metal and material sector. However, if this is a down payment the story has shifted. ISA…

Oil Rises a Second Day on U.S. Supply Drop, ECB Plan Optimism at Bloomberg . On Tuesday EOG Resources CEO Mark Papa gave a presentaion . Starting at the 10 minute market he gives an overview of world oil markets (starts with page 8 ). In…

In 2011 U.S. government unfunded liabilities grew by $11 trillion ( Bloomberg ). Political promises are never retracted; instead the default will be papered over through debasement. Don Coxe on gold in the Gold Report . The title on one of…

As the coal stocks grind lower, I really don’t have much to say other than ‘wait’. Coal spot prices, which are uneconomic, are going nowhere fast. EIA “China’s 3.52 billion metric tons of output last year was almost half of the global…

Oil Trades Near One-Week Low as U.S. Manufacturing Contracts at Bloomberg . 2012 US Oil Production Will Be Highest In 14 Years & US Oil Boom Gets Bigger ( John Hanger via EIA). Saudi Arabia may become oil importer by 2030: Citigroup at…

One mainstream journalist at a leading publication asks: “ Why has gold lost its shine? This precious metal has fallen in value and analysts are puzzled” at the Guardian . Meanwhile, the gold bug community is downright giddy short term…

Oil Rises to Highest in One Week on Stimulus Speculation at Bloomberg . Did you know Gasoline Costs In 2011 Hit Record Average of $2,850 ? ( John Hanger ). No wonder Lessons from the 2011 oil release are discussed ( Financial Post ). U.S…

Since inception, Independent Stock Analysis has closely monitored the precious metal markets. The bottoming out of the sector and recent breakout calls have been noted. Until China re-accelerates, which is not expected soon, consider the…

Oil Heads for Second Monthly Gain Before Fed Chairman’s Speech at Bloomberg . “Global crude oil supplies have tightened as top petroleum countries such as Iran produce less” per the EIA. Short and long versions. “Growing global demand for…

Rail Traffic Nears 4 Year High at Value Plays . First, this is a function of the U.S. private sector economy being decent ( Mark Perry ). “If you are looking for better-than-expected global economic indicators, welcome home; they are…

Charts to confirm and challenge the fundamental biases presented at Independent Stock Analysis : Stateside: House prices have gone positive year over year: Business Insider . Showtime for the Nasdaq: Kimble . Bank stocks: Kimble . Breadth…

Oil Declines for a Second Day as Stockpiles Rise, Storm Weakens at Bloomberg . Hurricane Isaac and shut in production: EIA . Why Gasoline Prices Are Volatile : “Boutique fuel requirements have balkanized the gasoline market, magnifying the…

If Moody’s is correct , then natural gas is headed much higher after the shoulder season: Switch From Coal-to-Gas Looks Permanent, Says Moody’s ( CIN ) and Most Coal-to-Gas Switching in U.S. Permanent, Moody’s Says ( Bloomberg ). The price…

Seems the stars are aligned for gold and silver: New Cyclical Bull Underway in Gold Stocks at Daily Gold . The beginning of a gold rally begin at Frank Talk . Gold and silver off to the races? at Gold Money . Gold Stocks Get Healthy at…

Ted O’Brien coal offered some coal market insights in a UBS conference call at Doyle Trading Consultants (Be sure to click play). Mr. O’Brien comments in detail on thermal coal, production cutbacks, exports, natural gas and coking coal…

Income investing in a zero rate world could be called an oxymoron. Investors do not know how long the environment will last. But can it end well? This type of list seems ubiquitous: 10 Undervalued Dividend-Paying Stocks With Momentum at…

Oil production and inventory levels are flush. New production demands high prices while emerging market demand growth has met declining OECD demand. The shale revolution continues as mother nature and refinery fires have energy prices…

Buying This Dip Historically Makes Sense at All Star Charts while Dennis Gartman Just Dumped All Of His Stocks ( AMP 2012 ). “Australia’s resources minister on Thursday declared the end of the country’s mining boom…” Reuters . Meanwhile…

A fourteen page natural gas storage chartfest from BMO and Investor Village . The hottest July ever helped burn excessive inventory: Haynesville Play . One natural gas tea leaf, from Investor Village : Nat Gas Production Data – Production…

Another sign of an unhealthy market: Dow Transports Lagging Industrials . ECB Said to Await German ESM Ruling Before Settling Plan ( Business Week ), which could create uncertainy. Conversely, a rally anyway would be quite bullish. Weal C…

Not mine, of course. I’m not here to tell you what to do. But first, I’d like to give a hearty welcome to the new members who joined yesterday and last night. As China manufacturing falls to 9-month low ( Globe and Mail ) and Europe…

Oil Gains on U.S. Stockpile Drop, Stimulus Speculation at Bloomberg . Yet, “Sanctions against Iranian oil are taking hold just as the world is finding itself oversupplied” in Does the World Need Iran’s Oil? Apparently Not at Business Week…

Our interest in coal was born in the depressed state of the industry. These stocks are not for the faint of heart. In this particular trade the speculator is looking for doubles and multi-baggers. As in Five most shocking stocks that have…

Looks like Europe will be making headlines again “as meetings between Greece’s prime minister and euro-zone leaders this week loom.” WSJ But our interest is China centric: Are the forecasts for re-acceleration in Chinese growth accurate…