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Cyclical and Secular

In a world of fiat money, perhaps everything is a speculation.  NY Times

Interest rate risk is real (Fortune).  The High Yield Market is “Completely Out of Control” at DDIREITs: A word of caution (Vanguard Blog).  US 10-Year Yield: Breakout or Fake Out? at Bespoke.

Best US Dividend Stocks for 2013 (Dividend Guy).  Your 2013 Dividend Guide: How to Find Fat Yields That Will Keep Growing (Ycharts).

Forecast 2013: Unsustainability and Transition by John Mauldin.  Strong economic growth makes the transition easier; is China re-accelerating?  Bespoke

Goldman’s Hatzius is optimistic:  Calculated Risk.

11 Reasons Why Ralph Acampora is a Secular Bull at All-Star Charts.  My soapbox:  I too am optimistic.  However, I challenge the use of ‘secular’ and ‘cyclical’.  For example, some pundits see December 1974 as the beginning of the great 80’s and 90’s bull market.  I disagree.  The low in valuation, though not price, occurred in August of ’82.  I view the late 1970’s leg as a cyclical bull inside a secular bear.  And I speculate today the stock market is in the third and final cyclical move of the secular bear.  Anyway…

“Gold may be showing its hand — and the hand could be a real winner for the bulls.”  Peter Brandt  Will silver finally make a new all time high in 2013?  If so, silver could be the best performing asset of the year.  Hmmm.

Gasoline prices may be a 2013 economic tailwind.  (Calculated Risk)

Did you know 29.3% of U.S. residences are owned mortgage free?  Mortgage News